Forecasting and Metrics, May 4-5 2020
Combine the Forecasting and Planning using Data and the Agile Metrics and Coaching using Data for a 2-day masterclass in using data for team coaching, organizational improvement, and planning.
If your organization wants to improve measurably using data or wants to improve the reliability of forecasts and multiple team planning, this workshop is an ideal starting point.
Day 1 – Forecasting and Planning using Data
Agenda at a glance
- How much data do we need to forecast?
- Forecasting 101 – thinking models about prediction
- Monte Carlo Forecasting
- Estimating the initial size and scope growth
- Determining the delivery pace for new and existing Teams
- Prioritization – ordering for value delivery
- Risk Management and dealing with system factors
- To learn the pros and cons of different forecasting techniques.
- To learn how to use data to forecast and how much data is needed.
- To learn how to perform Monte Carlo forecasting and why.
- To learn how to estimate work size and delivery pace ranges quickly.
- To learn what system factors play a role in forecasting.
Problems and examples discussed and solved during the workshop include –
- How to forecast what will fit into a fixed delivery time (e.g., sprint, release, quarter)
- How to predict the flow rate through a development and delivery process
- How to forecast how long a project will take using range estimates or historical data
- How to manage dependencies between teams to reliably predict
- How to estimate the remaining defect counts and ways to assess release readiness
- How to determine staff risk impact due to skills or lack of availability
- How to integrate risk management with feature and project forecasts
Day 2 – Agile Metrics and Coaching using Data
Agenda at a glance
- The Five Rules of using Metrics
- Visualization Theory and Practice
- The Six Performance Dimensions
- Spotting Wrong – Anomaly Detection
- Finding Balance and using Polarities for Coaching
- Survey Data Theory and Practice
- Data Stewardship
- To learn what data to capture and why
- To learn how to display data to cause action
- To learn how to coach people on balance across multiple competing metrics
- To learn what dimensions are essential to measure and balance
- To learn how to create and capture survey data on team and organizational health
- To learn how to capture, store and manage data as an asset for future planning
Who this course is for
Forecasting using data will benefit people in the following roles
- Product Management
- Product Owners
- Scrum masters
- Agile coaches
More generally, it is perfect for
- Anyone who currently uses (or teaches) estimates to forecast how long or how big teams need to be to deliver work (portfolio or product management, product owners, scrum masters, coaches).
- Anyone who wants to observe and drive team and organization improvement over time (irrespective of the process used such as Scrum, Kanban, or SAFe).
No specific statistical or mathematical knowledge is needed; this session introduces all of the skills necessary to perform forecasts without complex statistics or mathematics. Bring a laptop (that has Excel installed) to follow along on your data, or watch your colleagues or me.